Uttar Pradesh, India’s most politically significant state which sends 80 MPs to the Lok Sabha, witnessed an epic battle between the ruling NDA and the opposition I.N.D.I. Alliance comprising Samajwadi Party and Congress.
Even though Prime Minister Narendra Modi won the Varanasi Lok Sabha seat for a third time, his National Democratic Alliance (NDA) faced a shocking result in UP, which was the BJP’s big bastion in the past two general elections.
According to the Election Commission figures, the BJP secured 33 seats and its allies got 3 seats (the Rashtriya Lok Dal won in 2 constituencies- Bagpat and Bijnore and Apna Dal (Sonelal) was victorious in 1 constituency – Mirzapur).
On the other hand, the I.N.D.I. Alliance made a stunning comeback and won 43 seats of which Akhilesh Yadav-led Samajwadi Party won 37 seats and Congress secured 6 Lok Sabha constituencies. Chandrashekhar of the Azad Samaj Party (Kanshiram) won from the Nagina seat.
While the Samajwadi Party contested 62 seats and the Congress fought in 17 constituencies. The BJP stuck to its old ally, Apna Dal (Sonelal), and also alliance with Jayant Chaudhary’s RLD and OP Rajbhar’s Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party into the NDA front.
Uttar Pradesh registered a 56.92% voter turnout in the seven phases of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, a 2.19% decline compared to previous elections.
In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP alone won 62 of the 80 seats, while the BSP and Samajwadi Party, then allies, won 10 and 5 seats, respectively.
Probable reasons for downfall of BJP- an analysis of people perspective
BJP’s National General Secretary Dushyant Kumar Gautam claimed that the voters of the state were illusioned by the opposition.
One key element that worked for the ‘do ladko ki jodi’ in UP, is the PDA perspective. Pichchde (backward classes), Dalits and Alpsankhyak (minorities), coined by Yadav has likely paid SP dividends.
Due to collapse of the Bahujan Samaj Party, Ahkilesh Yadav adopted the BJP’s “non-Yadav OBC and non-Jatav Dalit” social combination into his ticket distribution strategy. Akhilesh Yadav strategically distributed tickets in a big way to non-Yadav OBCs like Kurmis, Kushwaha, Maurya, Pal, Bind, Nishad and other most backward OBC and even Dalits. This is the section which had voted overwhelmingly for the BJP in 2014 and 2019. This time all these voters polarized towards I.N.D.I. Alliance.
This time, Samajwadi Party broke the previous perception of being an MY (Muslim-Yadav) party by giving tickets to only 4 Muslims and 5 Yadavas. The SP-Congress alliance also largely ensured the consolidation of Muslim votes ensuring such a result.
By giving them a big seat share in SP’s ticket distribution, Akhilesh Yadav gave I.N.D.I. Alliance a handsome victory in UP and took full advantage of the BSP’s virtual collapse. Mayawati-led BSP has not been able to win a single seat in the Hindi heartland state and its vote share has shrunk to a measly 2.05%.
Simultaneously, the I.N.D.I. Alliance campaign was ideologically focused on saving the Constitution and a host of issues which touch the everyday life of the common people: rampant unemployment, rising inflation, Agniveer, menace of stray cattle’s, examination paper leaks and farmers’ distress.
Another factor for the dismal performance of the BJP was the failure of ideological issues, especially the Ram temple consecration, in bringing electoral gains for the saffron party. This is best illustrated in the defeat of the BJP in Ayodhya (Faizabad), the epicenter of the Mandir movement. Samajwadi Party gave ticket to a SC candidate in general seat and the experiment was great successful.
According to social media, ticket choice, caste equations are other factor of loss of ground by BJP. Rumours are that many tickets in BJP was given without consultation of Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath. It is also said that the Rajputs and Jats in western UP were dissatisfied with BJP ticket distribution. The over confidence of BJP and RSS workers on Modi factor is also one of the reason that BJP voters could not come out for voting, whereas PDA voters turnout is masses. The BJP workers didn’t work at grassroot level as earlier they were known for this strategy.
Most of the ministers in NDA from UP lost the ground, the reason may be that they were not connected with people of their constituency. After 2019 Lok Sabha elections people have much more expectations from their representatives which could not be fulfilled by these member of parliaments. Many of the senior leader lost the ground in Uttar Pradesh.
During the first phase of polling, the BJP’s campaign had focused on peripherally on the Ram Mandir but stressed on the “Viksit Bharat” narrative and development issues.
However, after the first phase for the BJP in UP, PM Modi, Union Home Minister Amit Shah and Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath changed track. The ‘Viksit bharat’ narrative was replaced by a strident campaign concentrating on ridiculing the Congress party’s manifesto of having shades of Muslim League, describing Muslims as intruders who produce many children, charging the I.N.D.I. Alliance of giving reservation to Muslims of their intent of snatching away the property of Hindus and even mangalsutras and buffaloes. Viksit Bharat was completely dropped.
But this campaign has evidently not helped the party much. PM Narendra Modi himself has won by a margin of barely 1.52 lakh votes in Varanasi, a significant lowering of his victory margin of 4.79 lakh in 2019.
Despite the Indian economy emerging as among the top performers globally in terms of growth rate, rising prices of necessities like gas cylinders and fuel prices likely played spoilsport for the party’s prospects in the state. Lack of jobs under the Modi government in the last ten years and the Opposition’s promise of 30 lakh jobs was probably successful in gaining the confidence of voters.
Congress party promise of giving Rs 8,500 per month and Rs 1 lakh every year to the poor women, repeated by Rahul Gandhi in almost all of his speeches struck a chord with the voters.
Disclaimer: The purpose of this article to analyse the political scenario in Uttar Pradesh without after Lok Sabha election any biased.
For more current news, please visit //:bharatscope.come